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Most people say that 65% of post-infectious IBS patients recover within 2-5 years. We also know that the rate of developping IBS after an infection varies between 3-30% depending on the bacteria and the study.

TL;DR:

Suppose bacteria x infects a population and has associated rate of 10%. This means that, statiscally speaking, 10% of the population will develop IBS-PI.

Here are my questions:

0) Is the distribution of the 10% more or less random? Or is there something in these folks which makes them pre-disposed to developing gastro problems after infections?

1) If someone were to recover from IBS-PI within, say two years, and then he subsequently gets an infection later on in his life: is his chance of redevelopping IBS really 10%? Or is this person pre-disposed to developping gastro problems and his rate is much higher than what the statistics tell us?

2) What happens if you get infected again before the 5 year limit? Does that mean it can take up to 5 additional years to recover? Or are you fucked (not going to recover at all)

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I hope i'm getting my point accross, i'm asking these questions because i recall that when i was younger i use to have strong stomach pains and problems that would last 3-8 months virtually following every stomach flu incident.

Although, after grade 4 i was able to avoid getting sick with gastroententeritis for a good 9 years (at which point i had it again and developped what seems to be IBS-PI.)

I'm just wondering what my chances are in the future if i ever recover from this IBS-PI, are my chances of developping IBS-PI upon re-infection still 10% (random, unrelated distributions)? Or am i pre-disposed to developping it and my chances are more like 80-100%?

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Optional note about how i'm doing:

An optional note on how i'm doing: I've dropped out of school and i've been at home just reading software documentation and such for around five months... i was hoping to furthur investigate wtf is happening to me and see if i can get some decent treatment before i go back... but prospects might be grim if i'm right about the above (re-infection will fuck me over again, and i can't avoid gastroententritis my whole life!)
 

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0) There seems there may be some genetic component, or maybe even a developmental component (how the enteric nervous system got build as you grew) that makes people a bit more likely or a bit less likely to get it. Like heart disease, some people eat poorly, smoke and never exercise and die of a heart attack at 35, some people do the same thing and die at 85 when they are run over by a bus.

1) Never seen stats for it, but I have had GI viruses since recovering and not gone back to severe IBS.

2) Again don't have the stats, but I would tend to think that if your body has the ability to recover once, operating from the idea that you can recover again will make recovery much more likely than assuming 2X or 3X means you can now never recover ever again. FWIW I got a bad virus during my bad IBS that did not make it worse and didn't seem to reset the clock as I got into an effective treatment a couple of months later and it worked for me.

I think some of this is that different bugs hit your immune system in slightly different ways so I think there may be a "which infection" not just that there was any infection.

That being said, I do suspect that people who have recovered from IBS may be served by doing what they can to avoid GI infections. Frequent hand washing, washing hands before eating, avoiding contaminate food and practicing good food preparation techniques, etc.
 
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